South West Weather

489
FXUS65 KPSR 010511
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1011 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong high pressure over the region will continue to result in
  dry conditions and well above normal temperatures, leading to
  daily record warmth, through the rest of the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures, although remaining above normal, along with
  continued dry conditions can be expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND SUNDAY/...
Latest objective analysis shows the ridge of high pressure centered
near the central Baja Peninsula with 500 mb heights across the
region ranging between 584-586dm. 850 mb temperatures continue to
hover near 20C, which is near record maximum for this time of the
year. As a result, afternoon high temperatures will once again be
anomalously warm with readings topping out low to mid 90s across
most of the lower desert communities, with even some upper 90s
across the western deserts, especially between Yuma and El Centro.
In fact, there is even a 50/50 shot that El Centro may actually
hit 100 degrees later this afternoon. Either way, record highs are
most certainty going to be tied/broken across all three of major
climate sites (Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro). There is even a high
probability (>70% chance) that Phoenix may set the all-time high
temperature record for February. By Sunday, the ridge will be on a
slight weakening trend as a upper trough approaches the northern
California coast. However, despite the slight lowering of heights
aloft, low-level thermal profiles will remain nearly unchanged and
thus surface temperatures will once reach the low to mid 90s with
daily record highs once again likely to be broken. With afternoon
high temperatures in the 90s, and especially occurring this early
in the year when the body has yet to fully acclimate to the heat,
it is very important to perform the necessary heat precautions if
planning outdoor activities during an extended period of time
during the warmest portion of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The Pacific weather system is forecast to quickly weaken as it
moves across the northern half of California early Monday and
through the Great Basin later Monday and Monday night. The path
of the system will mostly be outside of our region, but it will be
close enough to totally displace the ridge well to our southeast.
Monday looks to be a fairly breezy day with gusts commonly
reaching 20-25 mph during the afternoon hours. Lowering heights
early next week will help to bring temperatures back down into
the upper 80s for most of the lower deserts on Monday and likely
into the low to mid 80s starting Tuesday.

The weather pattern for the rest of next week looks to stay fairly
progressive with a quick moving weak shortwave ridge on Wednesday
followed by more persistent troughing setting up late next week.
Dry conditions should however continue to prevail through the rest
of the workweek as any system that may affect our region will be
fairly moisture starved. Guidance is attempting to suggest an
upper low will develop somewhere within or just to the west of
our region by next weekend. This system could eventually bring
some precipitation chances for some areas next weekend, but
uncertainty on its strength, track, and moisture availability
remains very high.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist during the TAF period
under FEW to BKN high cirrus decks. Winds will follow a persistent
diurnal trend with speeds generally AOB 10 kts at all terminals.
Periods of variability to nearly calm conditions are anticipated,
particularly during the morning and typical diurnal transitions.
A few gusts to 15-20 kts cannot be ruled out Sunday evening into
the overnight hours at KIPL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will continue through the middle of next week
as well-above normal temperatures cool slightly as the weather
pattern begins to shift. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will
fall into the teens across the lower elevations with some areas
nearing single digits Sunday and Monday. Humidity levels will only
be somewhat higher in foothills and mountains. This will follow
mostly fair to good overnight recovery of 30-60% though some areas
of poor recovery under 20% will exist early next week. Wind
speeds will largely remain under 15 mph with modest afternoon
upslope gusts 20-25 mph becoming common. The strongest gusts
would be expected Monday and Thursday afternoon. Overall
conditions will be favorable for early spring prescribed burning
operations.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily High Temperature Records:

       Phoenix      Yuma      El Centro
      ---------   ---------   ---------
2/28  89 (1986)   97 (1986)   92 (1986)
3/1   89 (2016)   93 (1986)   91 (2016)
3/2   90 (2016)   94 (1910)   92 (2016)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict/Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict